How Do U.S. Elections Affect Stock Market Performance?

credit: TRB Blogs

It's that time of year again: time for investors to look back at the last presidential election and see if there's any correlation between it and the performance of the stock market.

A Bloomberg analysis of 24 presidential elections going back to 1927 finds that the S&P 500 has returned an average of 4.6% during those yearsbelow the long-term average of 7.2%, but slightly better than those for non-election years.

And it's not just the election itself that could be to blame, the study notes: Other economic developments, such as the Great Depression, World War II, the bursting of the technology bubble, and the COVID19 pandemic, have also had an impact on the market.

"Correlations exist in varying degrees, but clients should focus on what ultimately matters over the longer term: the economy and business fundamentals," the study says.

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